IP Notes 10/18

#11 Hegemony
IV Responses
Rejuvenation
Internal reform, get more resources from internal stores
Preventive War
SPARTA and ATHENS... durrrr.
peloponnesian war was exactly this
also preventive war in Germany? against russia?
Further Expansion
Find a better defensive perimeter
-expand to the point where it becomes cheaper to defend the frontiers
-just like RISK- own all of the americas rather than just half of north
-there were problems here too- very dangerous
Reudce Commitment
3 ways to do this
-retrench (pull back, defend the homeland)
-classic example- Christian empire in 7th century (byzantine)
-they basically abandoned the western mediterreanean, defended the core of the empire in the east
-seek alliances
-find allies that are less threatening
-examples- still dangerous (defection? allies may become new competitors?)
-also possibly the commitments that you have to make to your allies make the alliances counterproductive
-appeasement
-basically child molestation
-neville chamberlain was a nice little appeaser, ended up not really working....
-actually, appeasement works sometimes
-allowed the 'weary titan' to live for just a bit longer
-lots of examples here of how appeasement works to stave off conflicts
-also not foolproof
-will the appeased state see this appeasement as enough, or will it end up demanding more?

V Hegemonic War
Characteristics
the issue is the governments of the whole system
-not just a conflict between two states, but systemic
there is a general scope to the war
-they're usually WORLD WARS
cause of the war is disproportionate to the level of violence
-pent up tensions trigger massive conflicts
war restores the heirarchy
-A hegemon is restored at the end (whether it's the original one or not)
Preconditions
a sense of intensification of the scope
-zero sum game!
psychological factors
-fear of decline, fear of other rising powers
events begin to escape control
-small events spiral out of control of the actors

Imperial Collapse and Decolonization
Decolonization has been a major pattern in world politics
remember that the triggering events for nearly all of the important conflicts in recent history come from imperial collapse1st wave (1774-1824)
-american revolution triggered by britain needing money to pay to defend the colonies
2nd wave (1940-1980)
-france, britain, holland all losing their colonies
-they start to lose their colonies after WWII, cause they essentially got SHANKED, even if they won
-might have been smart for them to cooperate to rule the world, but they decided to kill eachother instead
Peaceful Change?
is this even possible?
-basically boils down to the possibility of successful appeasement
we have declining states and rising states, and you need to be able to play them both well
-successful foreign policy is knowing WHEN TO APPEASE
it may be possible, but it's DAMN hard

VI American Decline Debate
Heg. and Int'l Institutions
US runs around establishing huge numbers of int'l institutions
-nato, IMF, GATT-WT, WB, UN
-THESE are the expressions of US hegemony
this means logically that if the US declines, then these organizations will also decline

Case for Decline
1970s, 80s, Gilpin starts saying that the US is losing control of the world, on the way out
GDP
-from 1920s-1945-50, US GDP skyrockets from ~20% of world output to ~50% of world output
-HOWEVER from 1950-1990, GDP declines back to ~25%
-they say this really isnt enough to rule the world anymore
Case against Decline
-while US HARD POWER is declining (economics), our SOFT POWER (organizations and ethos) is stronger than ever
-you can't beat the hegemon without putting into place a successor
-there's no real successor to the US, doesnt make sense
-USSR was the first challenger, they declined and died
-they were very lopsided, collapsed on economic grounds
-Japan comes next, they're not likely either
-they're solely economic power, no military
-Germany? not likely
-beaten down already, they've given up
NEW CHALLENGERS
-China? economic powerhouse
-huge economic growth (~10% yearly growth rate)
-if growth rate continues, by 2030 China will surpass the US in economic capacity
-arguments against- TINY per capita
-EU?
-NOT A STATE, not unified enough
Persistence with Decline
there's another argument- taht it's possible for the institutions to exist WITHOUT US hegemony
-there really hasnt been a test of this, because there hasnt been a successor to the US
still another quasi-liberal argument that the institutions will persist without ANY hegemony
-while the institutions might have required US hegemony to be put into place, their benefits are such that the institutions are useful enough to persist without US support

#12 Balance of Power
I Definitions and Features
Configuration
Balance of power is to realism as GOD is to religion... lawl
Equality/Equilibrium
core belief here is that balance can check power
-the idea is that power is equal to power
To Balance
2 real alternatives here, balance or bandwagon
-either fight to keep the balance good or jump up with the winner
also there is the conception that there is not only POWER, but also INTENT
-canada doesnt ally with the USSR or china just because the US has power
-US has no intent to attack canada and canada knows this
EXTERNAL VS INTERNAL BALANCING
-external balancing is alliances
-when A gets too powerful, B, C, and D will band together against it
-internal balancing is the other choice
-the extent to which a state internally mobilizes its resources
-small states can balance out larger states if they mobilize MORE of their internal resources