OCC CIV NOTES 12/7
Board shit
1776 Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations (Industrial rev. has begun in britain)
american revolution (colonial independence in americas)
disputes= re property, taxation, representation, standing army, quartering of soldiers
discourses of republicanism + liberty + virtue vs tyranny
-'liberty, property, rule of law, representative-made law against tyranny + political slavery
tom paine- 'common sense' 1776- 150,000 + copies/ vs hereditary monarch + aristocracy
some for redistribution of property (paine, jefferson) citing sparta
but humer -vs equality of property as unnatural (hamilton, madison, etc)
debates re participation in franchise (taxable property/ inhabitants/ oath takers) (women - wollstonecraft rejected in america for the vindication of the rights of woman
quakers vs slavery-- james otis (rights of the britis colonies asserted (17644))- 'the colonists are by the law of nature free born, as indeed all men are, black or white'
industrial revolution 1760s
-steam power/factories/mills/urbanization/huge movement of population from rural to urban
-task-oriented, time disciplined
-sustained economic growth, concentrations of capital, technology, sense of 'progress'
LECTURE SHIT
in many ways, the industrial revolution ends many of the ways of looking at the world we've talked about in this term
england
-plentiful economic growth
-lots of mechanization, increasing division of labor, etc
-more food yay!
1776 ended an era, essentially
-not only american revolution, also adam smith, whole confluence of all sorts of shit
-arguments for rights for some required compromising rights for others (rights for americans comes without rights for american women or blacks, etc)
in general, membership to the british empire is seen as advantageous to the colonies until the 1760s
-1760s on, british start to exert more and more pressure on colonists' lives
-late 1760s- opposition grew, more changes demanded
-much of opposition actually drew from the success of the 7 years' war
-now, there was this huge debt to be paid off, a huge army based in the americas still existed
-this meant taxes, increased administrative control
-cutoff of smuggling
-stamp act, tea act (last straw, that one)
-these actions were taken by parliamentary action in london, without any input from american colonies
-in practice, in england during 18th century, about 1/5 of the male population could actually vote
-in american colonies, soooooo much more franchise
-argument was that those who were denied of representation were therefore 'enslaved', and since the white male population of the colonies were FREE, this was unacceptable
-'political slavery'
-increasing desire in the colonies for a redesign of the british empire, into something like a federation of autonomous republics or something like that
-franklin looked at british standard of living, applauded it
-looked at all other british colonies, saw that they really sucked (scotland, ireland, northern england lived 'worse than savages')
-looked at america, saw something better than every single other country on earth (except maybe the netherlands? what?)
-colonists saw themselves as hot shit
-colonists saw that they did a huge amount of work during the war
-mass, n.y. pretty much bankrupted themselves giving money to the war effort
-but parliament, england thought that the war was undertaken to defend the colonies, so the colonies should pay for it
-british were strongly opposed to granting america legislative autonomy
strong tradition of republicanism in the british republic
-machiavellian standpoint in the 'discourses'
-stressed that monarchies naturally tended to be tyrannical
-this tradition was only strengthened in the british civil war
-govts, courts became corrupt as they gained too much power
-there were calls for civilian militias to form to check gov't military power
-everybody gets the right to bear arms from this
-people spoke of america as destined to be a republic
-americans saw british actions as right on target with the predictions of tyrannical shit
-locke took a more cautious tack with the monarchy
-monarchy was tyrannical in its actions, rather than intrinsically
-tom paine was perhaps most influential, with 'common sense'
-argued against everything and anything british
-monarchy was corrupt, unnecessary, harmful
-hereditary monarchy and aristocracy was disgusting, no sane person would agree with them
-the colonies and america specifically were treated like a war horse or elephant by britain
-americans' simplicity was a virtue, avoided the decadence of british
-essentially an ode to american virtue while attacking the shit out of the british
-there were other traditions as well, some more socialist than others
-jefferson, for instance, argued for giving land to every white male
-many states demanded the resale of royal lands in tiny parcels, in order to give land to everybody
-locke's arguments were more conservative, believe that the government is there to protect all property, even if distributed unequally
-hume was cited as attacking sparta as an 'unnatural' arrangement, equality in property was 'unnatural'
-in many colonies, there were land requirements for franchise (in all but one state)
-even though franchise was limited, there was still ~80% franchise among white men, because america was so land-rich
-franchise was also denied to women, nobody besides paine argued for women's rights
-woolstonecraft's arguments were rejected in the US
-education was opened up for women, however
-indians, women, simply denied all rights
-treaty of paris granted americans the rights to all land east of the mississippi river
-indians fought the americans off pretty decently, so americans looked to negotiation and deal-making to get the indians off the land
-slavery was an established institution in all 13 colonies
-~200,000 slaves in delmarva, ~100,000 in SC
-really not too much opposition to slavery
-there is some, from quakers, etc
-most northern states took actions against the slave trade, slavery
-EVEN AFTER emancipation in the north, americans were still reluctant to give blacks the franchise
-in the south, slave #s increased, etc
-american constitution protected slavery
Industrialization and the Industrial Revolution
-1776- publication of adam smith's 'wealth of nations'
-industrial revolution usually dated post 1760 in britain
-even in britain railroads, electricity, etc, didnt get too widespread until 19th century
-even the tiny amount they had was enough to revolutionize the economy
-steam power was massively beneficial to productivity, production
-companies used to just bring work to people's homes
-now, spinning, weaving are done on machines in factories rather than weaving at home
-mills were HUGELY important
-now people worked for others, worked for wages, rather than for profit
-this created huge towns and cities
-NOW we have massive urbanization
-people shoot over from rural to urban areas
-in 1700 in england, 80% of work force was in agriculture
-in 1800- 40%
-wow
-until industrial revolution, people worked in a 'task economy'
-how hard you worked depended on the weather, season, etc
-when its nice out, you farm the fields, when its shitty out, you fix tools, etc
-you define your own work schedule, how hard you work
-industrial rev. changes all this
-now you work for wages
-now one's work becomes basically just one task. all year. wow this sucks
-you dont work very hard during one season now, but hard all year
-the work was declared as 'unskilled'
-although much shittier for the worker, its soooo much more efficient
-economy grows more rapidly and more sustainably than ever before
-where early modern europe was seen as a zero-sum game, now there is the prospect of PROGRESS
-industrial revolution makes commercial expansion less important than capital expansion and formation
Google Checkout is incredible
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
IP NOTES 12/6
I State Structure & Nuclear Revolution
Nuclear Weapons and Constitutional Democracy
idea was that the industrial era (world wars) would destroy constitutional democracy
the US would have to become a garrison state just to survive the wars
in one sense- constitutional democracy was SAFE
-nukes give soooo much bang for the buck, it makes military easier
const. democracy is also hollowed
-essentially establishes nuclear despotism inside the const. democracies
-commander in chief has the launch keys, and him alone
totalitarian nuclear archipelago
-the production and research of nuclear materials, etc, are INTENSELY hierarchical
Leaking Leviathans
AQ KHAN NETWORK
-pakistani nuke scientist that went out and stole plans for nukes, etc
-would have been not too bad, just pakistan would get the bomb, but Khan SOLD the technology, materials
-Khan decided to sell this shit to n. korea, libya, iran, etc
-fucks EVERYTHING up. wooo leakage
"THE GOLD STANDARD"
-lets just globally secure fissile material and nukes as securely as we do gold
II Terrorism: What, Who, Why
Elusive Definitions
can't really define terrorism
un is retarded
one definition is that of non-state actors doing bad shit
another argument is that states can be terrorists, but this is unacceptable to state leaders
Terrorism Myths: Novelty, Irrationality, and Democracy
Terrorism is NOT NEW
-goes back to the beginning of history, even more recently with the invention of dynamite
Terrorism is NOT crazy
-terrorists are not irrational, they're looking to accomplish political goals
-they're not just blowing shit up for no reason
Terrorism is solvable short-term by democracy
-maybe this is true, long term
-short term, democracy and the absence of terrorism are NOT correlated
Asymmetric Warfare
terrorism is essentially a weapon of the weak
-guerrilla warfare, anybody?
terrorism is a time-honored tool of insurgent warfare
-terrorists cause disorder and fear, this decreases the legitimacy of the ruling state
-hence, terrorism is ridiculously effective at fighting established power
Al Qaeda, Radical Islam, and Global War on Terrorism
ozzie bin laden was originally an 'american client' used to fight the soviet invasion of afghanistan
they start up cells in ~60 different countries
so you've got islam (huge group of over a billion)
-subset of that is political islam, small fraction of muslims
-subset of that is radical political islam, a small fraction of THAT
-and a subset of that is VIOLENT radical political islam (tiny, tiny, tiny, but VOCAL number of people)
basic goal- throw the americans out of saudi arabia, reunite the arab muslim world under a caliphate
whats the plan?
-strike at the US
-wait for the US to strike back, possibly collateral damage, etc
-use that strike back as a recruitment tool
G.W.O.T.
-we aren't actually focused on TERRORISM (terrorism's a tactic, not a person)
-the question is should we have a 'war on terrorism' or just establish these people as criminals
Cults: Aum Shinryko
cult- a micro totalitarian society or group typically dominated by a charismatic leader
-aum shinryko is a pretty disturbing one
-they had assets of > <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">IP NOTES 12/6</span></span><br> <br> <span style="font-weight: bold;">I State Structure &amp; Nuclear Revolution</span><br><span style="font-style: italic;">Nuclear Weapons and Constitutional Democracy</span><br>idea was that the industrial era (world wars) would destroy constitutional democracy<br>the US would have to become a garrison state just to survive the wars<br>in one sense- constitutional democracy was SAFE<br>    -nukes give soooo much bang for the buck, it makes military easier<br>const. democracy is also hollowed<br>    -essentially establishes nuclear despotism inside the const. democracies<br>    -commander in chief has the launch keys, and him alone<br>totalitarian nuclear archipelago<br>    -the production and research of nuclear materials, etc, are INTENSELY hierarchical<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Leaking Leviathans</span><br>AQ KHAN NETWORK<br>    -pakistani nuke scientist that went out and stole plans for nukes, etc<br>    -would have been not too bad, just pakistan would get the bomb, but Khan SOLD the technology, materials<br>    -Khan decided to sell this shit to n. korea, libya, iran, etc<br>    -fucks EVERYTHING up. wooo leakage<br>"THE GOLD STANDARD"<br>    -lets just globally secure fissile material and nukes as securely as we do gold<br><br><span style="font-weight: bold;">II Terrorism: What, Who, Why</span><br><span style="font-style: italic;">Elusive Definitions</span><br>can't really define terrorism<br>un is retarded<br>one definition is that of non-state actors doing bad shit<br>another argument is that states can be terrorists, but this is unacceptable to state leaders<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Terrorism Myths: Novelty, Irrationality, and Democracy</span><br>Terrorism is NOT NEW<br>    -goes back to the beginning of history, even more recently with the invention of dynamite<br>Terrorism is NOT crazy<br>    -terrorists are not irrational, they're looking to accomplish political goals<br>    -they're not just blowing shit up for no reason<br>Terrorism is solvable short-term by democracy<br>    -maybe this is true, long term<br>    -short term, democracy and the absence of terrorism are NOT correlated<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Asymmetric Warfare</span><br>terrorism is essentially a weapon of the weak<br>    -guerrilla warfare, anybody?<br>terrorism is a time-honored tool of insurgent warfare<br>    -terrorists cause disorder and fear, this decreases the legitimacy of the ruling state<br>    -hence, terrorism is ridiculously effective at fighting established power<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Al Qaeda, Radical Islam, and Global War on Terrorism</span><br>ozzie bin laden was originally an 'american client' used to fight the soviet invasion of afghanistan<br>they start up cells in ~60 different countries<br>so you've got islam (huge group of over a billion)<br>    -subset of that is political islam, small fraction of muslims<br>    -subset of <span style="font-style: italic;">that</span> is radical political islam, a small fraction of THAT<br>    -and a subset of <span style="font-style: italic;">that</span> is VIOLENT radical political islam (tiny, tiny, tiny, but VOCAL number of people)<br>basic goal- throw the americans out of saudi arabia, reunite the arab muslim world under a caliphate<br>whats the plan?<br>    -strike at the US<br>    -wait for the US to strike back, possibly collateral damage, etc<br>    -use that strike back as a recruitment tool<br>G.W.O.T.<br>    -we aren't actually focused on TERRORISM (terrorism's a tactic, not a person)<br>    -the question is should we have a 'war on terrorism' or just establish these people as criminals<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Cults: Aum Shinryko</span><br>cult- a micro totalitarian society or group typically dominated by a charismatic leader<br>    -aum shinryko is a pretty disturbing one<br>    -they had assets of &gt;$1 billion<br>    -were making systematic attempts to secure nuclear material<br>    -they actually started establishing some laboratories, made anthrax, released sarin (nerve gas) in the tokyo subway<br>    -their idea was that if their plan worked, japanese govt would collapse under the chaos, and they could step in and take power<br><br><span style="font-weight: bold;">III Theorizing WMD Terrorism</span><br><span style="font-style: italic;">WMD Terrorism</span><br>WMD terrorism is actually a TINY subset of total terrorist attacks in quantity<br>    -HOWEVER, WMD terrorism's harms faaaaarrrrr outweigh the harms of the rest of terrorist attacks combined<br>the idea is that it's not a matter of if, but when we'll be hit<br>we're gonna have to start thinking about a post-washington foreign policy (cause its just a matter of time until washington's goooone)<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Shifting K-K Ratio &amp; Omniviolence</span><br>idea is that the killers to killed ratio has always been in the realm of 1-1 through 1-10<br>    -with 9/11, it shifted significantly higher (like 30-3000)<br>    -with WMD, the K-K ratio is massively unbalance<br>    -we've never dealt with this before<br>Omniviolence is the world where there are potentially 100s-1000s of actors<br>    -at the moment, tehre are ~8-25<br>    -this would be chaos<br>even if fissile material is hard to obtain, nowadays we can manufacture tailor-made viruses, etc, so that BIOWEAPONS are extremely deadly<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Penetration and Liberty</span><br>penetration is the measure of how many levels of govt actually touch, or affect, the individual<br>    -low penetration is associated with political liberty, and high penetration the exact opposite<br>    -penetration is things like surveillance, etc<br>essentially, there's a trade off to be made<br>    -trade off between security and nuclear containment<br>    -if we want to keep our current level of containment (low), we'll need to have to massively increase our penetration (just for security)<br>    -if we want to maintain our liberty, we need to massively increase containment efforts<br> billion
-were making systematic attempts to secure nuclear material
-they actually started establishing some laboratories, made anthrax, released sarin (nerve gas) in the tokyo subway
-their idea was that if their plan worked, japanese govt would collapse under the chaos, and they could step in and take power
III Theorizing WMD Terrorism
WMD Terrorism
WMD terrorism is actually a TINY subset of total terrorist attacks in quantity
-HOWEVER, WMD terrorism's harms faaaaarrrrr outweigh the harms of the rest of terrorist attacks combined
the idea is that it's not a matter of if, but when we'll be hit
we're gonna have to start thinking about a post-washington foreign policy (cause its just a matter of time until washington's goooone)
Shifting K-K Ratio & Omniviolence
idea is that the killers to killed ratio has always been in the realm of 1-1 through 1-10
-with 9/11, it shifted significantly higher (like 30-3000)
-with WMD, the K-K ratio is massively unbalance
-we've never dealt with this before
Omniviolence is the world where there are potentially 100s-1000s of actors
-at the moment, tehre are ~8-25
-this would be chaos
even if fissile material is hard to obtain, nowadays we can manufacture tailor-made viruses, etc, so that BIOWEAPONS are extremely deadly
Penetration and Liberty
penetration is the measure of how many levels of govt actually touch, or affect, the individual
-low penetration is associated with political liberty, and high penetration the exact opposite
-penetration is things like surveillance, etc
essentially, there's a trade off to be made
-trade off between security and nuclear containment
-if we want to keep our current level of containment (low), we'll need to have to massively increase our penetration (just for security)
-if we want to maintain our liberty, we need to massively increase containment efforts
I State Structure & Nuclear Revolution
Nuclear Weapons and Constitutional Democracy
idea was that the industrial era (world wars) would destroy constitutional democracy
the US would have to become a garrison state just to survive the wars
in one sense- constitutional democracy was SAFE
-nukes give soooo much bang for the buck, it makes military easier
const. democracy is also hollowed
-essentially establishes nuclear despotism inside the const. democracies
-commander in chief has the launch keys, and him alone
totalitarian nuclear archipelago
-the production and research of nuclear materials, etc, are INTENSELY hierarchical
Leaking Leviathans
AQ KHAN NETWORK
-pakistani nuke scientist that went out and stole plans for nukes, etc
-would have been not too bad, just pakistan would get the bomb, but Khan SOLD the technology, materials
-Khan decided to sell this shit to n. korea, libya, iran, etc
-fucks EVERYTHING up. wooo leakage
"THE GOLD STANDARD"
-lets just globally secure fissile material and nukes as securely as we do gold
II Terrorism: What, Who, Why
Elusive Definitions
can't really define terrorism
un is retarded
one definition is that of non-state actors doing bad shit
another argument is that states can be terrorists, but this is unacceptable to state leaders
Terrorism Myths: Novelty, Irrationality, and Democracy
Terrorism is NOT NEW
-goes back to the beginning of history, even more recently with the invention of dynamite
Terrorism is NOT crazy
-terrorists are not irrational, they're looking to accomplish political goals
-they're not just blowing shit up for no reason
Terrorism is solvable short-term by democracy
-maybe this is true, long term
-short term, democracy and the absence of terrorism are NOT correlated
Asymmetric Warfare
terrorism is essentially a weapon of the weak
-guerrilla warfare, anybody?
terrorism is a time-honored tool of insurgent warfare
-terrorists cause disorder and fear, this decreases the legitimacy of the ruling state
-hence, terrorism is ridiculously effective at fighting established power
Al Qaeda, Radical Islam, and Global War on Terrorism
ozzie bin laden was originally an 'american client' used to fight the soviet invasion of afghanistan
they start up cells in ~60 different countries
so you've got islam (huge group of over a billion)
-subset of that is political islam, small fraction of muslims
-subset of that is radical political islam, a small fraction of THAT
-and a subset of that is VIOLENT radical political islam (tiny, tiny, tiny, but VOCAL number of people)
basic goal- throw the americans out of saudi arabia, reunite the arab muslim world under a caliphate
whats the plan?
-strike at the US
-wait for the US to strike back, possibly collateral damage, etc
-use that strike back as a recruitment tool
G.W.O.T.
-we aren't actually focused on TERRORISM (terrorism's a tactic, not a person)
-the question is should we have a 'war on terrorism' or just establish these people as criminals
Cults: Aum Shinryko
cult- a micro totalitarian society or group typically dominated by a charismatic leader
-aum shinryko is a pretty disturbing one
-they had assets of > <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">IP NOTES 12/6</span></span><br> <br> <span style="font-weight: bold;">I State Structure &amp; Nuclear Revolution</span><br><span style="font-style: italic;">Nuclear Weapons and Constitutional Democracy</span><br>idea was that the industrial era (world wars) would destroy constitutional democracy<br>the US would have to become a garrison state just to survive the wars<br>in one sense- constitutional democracy was SAFE<br>    -nukes give soooo much bang for the buck, it makes military easier<br>const. democracy is also hollowed<br>    -essentially establishes nuclear despotism inside the const. democracies<br>    -commander in chief has the launch keys, and him alone<br>totalitarian nuclear archipelago<br>    -the production and research of nuclear materials, etc, are INTENSELY hierarchical<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Leaking Leviathans</span><br>AQ KHAN NETWORK<br>    -pakistani nuke scientist that went out and stole plans for nukes, etc<br>    -would have been not too bad, just pakistan would get the bomb, but Khan SOLD the technology, materials<br>    -Khan decided to sell this shit to n. korea, libya, iran, etc<br>    -fucks EVERYTHING up. wooo leakage<br>"THE GOLD STANDARD"<br>    -lets just globally secure fissile material and nukes as securely as we do gold<br><br><span style="font-weight: bold;">II Terrorism: What, Who, Why</span><br><span style="font-style: italic;">Elusive Definitions</span><br>can't really define terrorism<br>un is retarded<br>one definition is that of non-state actors doing bad shit<br>another argument is that states can be terrorists, but this is unacceptable to state leaders<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Terrorism Myths: Novelty, Irrationality, and Democracy</span><br>Terrorism is NOT NEW<br>    -goes back to the beginning of history, even more recently with the invention of dynamite<br>Terrorism is NOT crazy<br>    -terrorists are not irrational, they're looking to accomplish political goals<br>    -they're not just blowing shit up for no reason<br>Terrorism is solvable short-term by democracy<br>    -maybe this is true, long term<br>    -short term, democracy and the absence of terrorism are NOT correlated<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Asymmetric Warfare</span><br>terrorism is essentially a weapon of the weak<br>    -guerrilla warfare, anybody?<br>terrorism is a time-honored tool of insurgent warfare<br>    -terrorists cause disorder and fear, this decreases the legitimacy of the ruling state<br>    -hence, terrorism is ridiculously effective at fighting established power<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Al Qaeda, Radical Islam, and Global War on Terrorism</span><br>ozzie bin laden was originally an 'american client' used to fight the soviet invasion of afghanistan<br>they start up cells in ~60 different countries<br>so you've got islam (huge group of over a billion)<br>    -subset of that is political islam, small fraction of muslims<br>    -subset of <span style="font-style: italic;">that</span> is radical political islam, a small fraction of THAT<br>    -and a subset of <span style="font-style: italic;">that</span> is VIOLENT radical political islam (tiny, tiny, tiny, but VOCAL number of people)<br>basic goal- throw the americans out of saudi arabia, reunite the arab muslim world under a caliphate<br>whats the plan?<br>    -strike at the US<br>    -wait for the US to strike back, possibly collateral damage, etc<br>    -use that strike back as a recruitment tool<br>G.W.O.T.<br>    -we aren't actually focused on TERRORISM (terrorism's a tactic, not a person)<br>    -the question is should we have a 'war on terrorism' or just establish these people as criminals<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Cults: Aum Shinryko</span><br>cult- a micro totalitarian society or group typically dominated by a charismatic leader<br>    -aum shinryko is a pretty disturbing one<br>    -they had assets of &gt;$1 billion<br>    -were making systematic attempts to secure nuclear material<br>    -they actually started establishing some laboratories, made anthrax, released sarin (nerve gas) in the tokyo subway<br>    -their idea was that if their plan worked, japanese govt would collapse under the chaos, and they could step in and take power<br><br><span style="font-weight: bold;">III Theorizing WMD Terrorism</span><br><span style="font-style: italic;">WMD Terrorism</span><br>WMD terrorism is actually a TINY subset of total terrorist attacks in quantity<br>    -HOWEVER, WMD terrorism's harms faaaaarrrrr outweigh the harms of the rest of terrorist attacks combined<br>the idea is that it's not a matter of if, but when we'll be hit<br>we're gonna have to start thinking about a post-washington foreign policy (cause its just a matter of time until washington's goooone)<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Shifting K-K Ratio &amp; Omniviolence</span><br>idea is that the killers to killed ratio has always been in the realm of 1-1 through 1-10<br>    -with 9/11, it shifted significantly higher (like 30-3000)<br>    -with WMD, the K-K ratio is massively unbalance<br>    -we've never dealt with this before<br>Omniviolence is the world where there are potentially 100s-1000s of actors<br>    -at the moment, tehre are ~8-25<br>    -this would be chaos<br>even if fissile material is hard to obtain, nowadays we can manufacture tailor-made viruses, etc, so that BIOWEAPONS are extremely deadly<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Penetration and Liberty</span><br>penetration is the measure of how many levels of govt actually touch, or affect, the individual<br>    -low penetration is associated with political liberty, and high penetration the exact opposite<br>    -penetration is things like surveillance, etc<br>essentially, there's a trade off to be made<br>    -trade off between security and nuclear containment<br>    -if we want to keep our current level of containment (low), we'll need to have to massively increase our penetration (just for security)<br>    -if we want to maintain our liberty, we need to massively increase containment efforts<br> billion
-were making systematic attempts to secure nuclear material
-they actually started establishing some laboratories, made anthrax, released sarin (nerve gas) in the tokyo subway
-their idea was that if their plan worked, japanese govt would collapse under the chaos, and they could step in and take power
III Theorizing WMD Terrorism
WMD Terrorism
WMD terrorism is actually a TINY subset of total terrorist attacks in quantity
-HOWEVER, WMD terrorism's harms faaaaarrrrr outweigh the harms of the rest of terrorist attacks combined
the idea is that it's not a matter of if, but when we'll be hit
we're gonna have to start thinking about a post-washington foreign policy (cause its just a matter of time until washington's goooone)
Shifting K-K Ratio & Omniviolence
idea is that the killers to killed ratio has always been in the realm of 1-1 through 1-10
-with 9/11, it shifted significantly higher (like 30-3000)
-with WMD, the K-K ratio is massively unbalance
-we've never dealt with this before
Omniviolence is the world where there are potentially 100s-1000s of actors
-at the moment, tehre are ~8-25
-this would be chaos
even if fissile material is hard to obtain, nowadays we can manufacture tailor-made viruses, etc, so that BIOWEAPONS are extremely deadly
Penetration and Liberty
penetration is the measure of how many levels of govt actually touch, or affect, the individual
-low penetration is associated with political liberty, and high penetration the exact opposite
-penetration is things like surveillance, etc
essentially, there's a trade off to be made
-trade off between security and nuclear containment
-if we want to keep our current level of containment (low), we'll need to have to massively increase our penetration (just for security)
-if we want to maintain our liberty, we need to massively increase containment efforts
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
IP NOTES 12/5
#25 Nuclear (II)
I The Nuclear-Political Question
why get nukes?
1)answer threat
2)prestige
3)internal bureaucratic push
why do less states have nukes than are capable?
-nuclear umbrella
-American or Soviet alliance allowed states to forgo nukes while still getting all the benefits
-if NATO or warsaw pact broke down, theory goes that nukes would proliferate a whole bunch
-'pariah states'
-states in a massively hostile environment, they need nukes to protect themselves
-NPT (1970)
-non nuclear states
-forgo nukes
-get civilian nuke reactors
-nuclear states
-have nukes
-provide civil nuclear capabilities
-move towards complete disarmament
-IAEA also created
-can only inspect declared sites
-if violations discovered, can only report said violations to UNSC
-the idea behind this was that civil and military nuclear capabilities are unrelated, but its really NOT TRUE
-civilian and military capabilities are intertwined
-idea to fix this problem
-inspect ALL SITES
-NO enrichment or reprocessing
-however, guaranteed access to nuke fuel
aaaaaaand now for our actual topic
II Nuclear One-Worldism
General Argument
Nukes render nation-states obsolete
-nukes do for continent-sized areas what gunpowder did for state-sized areas
this was pretty much based on the assumption that nukes would continue to be used
during 1945-55, when memory of nukes was still real fresh...
America proposes the BARUCH PLAN
-all nuclear activities of all states would be placed into the hands of an international authority
-separates nuclear capabilities from government
Varieties
IMPERIAL ONE-WORLDISM
-J. Burnham was the main proponent of this
-well, the US has a nuclear monopoly
-we should forcibly establish a world government
-destroy the USSR if necessary
-this assumes that nukes would exist, and be used
-Burnham went on to be the editor of the NATIONAL REVIEW, hugely conservative publication
MAXIMAL WORLD FEDERALISM
-extensively debated, much more liberal than ^^
-R. Hutchins headed them up
-1948- came up with a draft of a world constitutionn
-the idea is that we'll just give the world what the US has
-community building would go hand in hand with state building
-establish a state, and unity would form
TRAGIC ONE-WORLDISM
-H. Morgenthau- the leading American realist
-the nation-state is militarily obsolete
-without community, there can be no state
-this is a problem, so world government CANNOT be created
-this is the tragic impasse
-advocated a holding action until the community was ready and willing to create a state
MINIMAL WORLD-STATEISM
-advocated a world police state
-the police state gets a monopoly of violence
-ALL it can do is enforce peace
-can do NOTHING ELSE
-even if the states agree to this, how do you keep the police state from becoming despotic
NONE of these systems really work all that well
III War Strategism
General Argument
nuclear weapons provide NO CHANGE in int'l politics
it's just a bunch of bigger guns
their image of state-system is that of a game, but a complicated one
like chess, extremely difficult, very complex, but ABLE TO BE WON
their idea is that of a LIMITED nuclear war
-you use nukes, but you don't destroy everything and anything
-you use them to FIGHT WAR
War Fighting & NUTS
NUTS- Nuclear utilization and targeting strategies
counterforce is the idea here, relative gains
even if we lose all but 20 people in the US, if the russians only have 19 then we win
Strategic Defense
in 1970, US and Russia BOTH decide not to test any anti-ballistic missiles
now, US withdrew from the ban
IV Deterrence Statism (DS)
General Argument
B. Brodie- main proponent
realists now really adopt this
idea is that there's been this huge revolution triggered by nuclear weapons
-they say that nukes have already triggered the revolution
-because of MAD, there is an EASY STALEMATE
-war is suicidal
-states dont want to die, therefore there will be no nuclear war
MAD & its requirements
secure second strike capability extremely necessary
CHRIS IS A DOUCHE-EATER
Automatic DS
all you need is a small amount of nukes, the massive amount of nukes created is ridiculous
arms control is also unnecessary, because deterrence is so robust that it can handle it
proliferation of nuclear weapons is actually BENEFICIAL, because then deterrence will spread to those states as well
-nukes produce PEACE
V Institutional DS
General Argument
'the arms control position'
arms control is not automatic and has prerequisites
you need some sort of learning process
-the actors are stupid, they need to learn
regimes are then established for establishing this understanding
nukes that fragment in the air and rain down as multiple nukes are... dangerous?
frozen anarchy
Internal and External AC
VI Modified NOW & Republicanism
General Argument
now what you ACTUALLY want to build is a sort of egg-carton
protect the vulnerabilities of the state, while keeping them separate
Nuclear Despotism
despotism = hierarchy
has a utopian assumption about the intelligence and self-preservation of states
Kalashnikov Revolution
AK47s and IEDs own the fuck out of nukes
-when you actually attempt to subdue a populace, you incur unacceptable losses
-essentially, you're left with two options- leave them alone or obliterate them entirely
Leaking Leviathans and MANGOs!!!!!!
leakage is to non-state actors
MNGOs- malevolent NGOs
as the # of nuke states increases, the possibility of leakage to a non-state actor goes way way up
-this ELIMINATES deterrence
-fuuuuuuuccckkkkkss the shit up
-
#25 Nuclear (II)
I The Nuclear-Political Question
why get nukes?
1)answer threat
2)prestige
3)internal bureaucratic push
why do less states have nukes than are capable?
-nuclear umbrella
-American or Soviet alliance allowed states to forgo nukes while still getting all the benefits
-if NATO or warsaw pact broke down, theory goes that nukes would proliferate a whole bunch
-'pariah states'
-states in a massively hostile environment, they need nukes to protect themselves
-NPT (1970)
-non nuclear states
-forgo nukes
-get civilian nuke reactors
-nuclear states
-have nukes
-provide civil nuclear capabilities
-move towards complete disarmament
-IAEA also created
-can only inspect declared sites
-if violations discovered, can only report said violations to UNSC
-the idea behind this was that civil and military nuclear capabilities are unrelated, but its really NOT TRUE
-civilian and military capabilities are intertwined
-idea to fix this problem
-inspect ALL SITES
-NO enrichment or reprocessing
-however, guaranteed access to nuke fuel
aaaaaaand now for our actual topic
II Nuclear One-Worldism
General Argument
Nukes render nation-states obsolete
-nukes do for continent-sized areas what gunpowder did for state-sized areas
this was pretty much based on the assumption that nukes would continue to be used
during 1945-55, when memory of nukes was still real fresh...
America proposes the BARUCH PLAN
-all nuclear activities of all states would be placed into the hands of an international authority
-separates nuclear capabilities from government
Varieties
IMPERIAL ONE-WORLDISM
-J. Burnham was the main proponent of this
-well, the US has a nuclear monopoly
-we should forcibly establish a world government
-destroy the USSR if necessary
-this assumes that nukes would exist, and be used
-Burnham went on to be the editor of the NATIONAL REVIEW, hugely conservative publication
MAXIMAL WORLD FEDERALISM
-extensively debated, much more liberal than ^^
-R. Hutchins headed them up
-1948- came up with a draft of a world constitutionn
-the idea is that we'll just give the world what the US has
-community building would go hand in hand with state building
-establish a state, and unity would form
TRAGIC ONE-WORLDISM
-H. Morgenthau- the leading American realist
-the nation-state is militarily obsolete
-without community, there can be no state
-this is a problem, so world government CANNOT be created
-this is the tragic impasse
-advocated a holding action until the community was ready and willing to create a state
MINIMAL WORLD-STATEISM
-advocated a world police state
-the police state gets a monopoly of violence
-ALL it can do is enforce peace
-can do NOTHING ELSE
-even if the states agree to this, how do you keep the police state from becoming despotic
NONE of these systems really work all that well
III War Strategism
General Argument
nuclear weapons provide NO CHANGE in int'l politics
it's just a bunch of bigger guns
their image of state-system is that of a game, but a complicated one
like chess, extremely difficult, very complex, but ABLE TO BE WON
their idea is that of a LIMITED nuclear war
-you use nukes, but you don't destroy everything and anything
-you use them to FIGHT WAR
War Fighting & NUTS
NUTS- Nuclear utilization and targeting strategies
counterforce is the idea here, relative gains
even if we lose all but 20 people in the US, if the russians only have 19 then we win
Strategic Defense
in 1970, US and Russia BOTH decide not to test any anti-ballistic missiles
now, US withdrew from the ban
IV Deterrence Statism (DS)
General Argument
B. Brodie- main proponent
realists now really adopt this
idea is that there's been this huge revolution triggered by nuclear weapons
-they say that nukes have already triggered the revolution
-because of MAD, there is an EASY STALEMATE
-war is suicidal
-states dont want to die, therefore there will be no nuclear war
MAD & its requirements
secure second strike capability extremely necessary
CHRIS IS A DOUCHE-EATER
Automatic DS
all you need is a small amount of nukes, the massive amount of nukes created is ridiculous
arms control is also unnecessary, because deterrence is so robust that it can handle it
proliferation of nuclear weapons is actually BENEFICIAL, because then deterrence will spread to those states as well
-nukes produce PEACE
V Institutional DS
General Argument
'the arms control position'
arms control is not automatic and has prerequisites
you need some sort of learning process
-the actors are stupid, they need to learn
regimes are then established for establishing this understanding
nukes that fragment in the air and rain down as multiple nukes are... dangerous?
frozen anarchy
Internal and External AC
VI Modified NOW & Republicanism
General Argument
now what you ACTUALLY want to build is a sort of egg-carton
protect the vulnerabilities of the state, while keeping them separate
Nuclear Despotism
despotism = hierarchy
has a utopian assumption about the intelligence and self-preservation of states
Kalashnikov Revolution
AK47s and IEDs own the fuck out of nukes
-when you actually attempt to subdue a populace, you incur unacceptable losses
-essentially, you're left with two options- leave them alone or obliterate them entirely
Leaking Leviathans and MANGOs!!!!!!
leakage is to non-state actors
MNGOs- malevolent NGOs
as the # of nuke states increases, the possibility of leakage to a non-state actor goes way way up
-this ELIMINATES deterrence
-fuuuuuuuccckkkkkss the shit up
-
Raamin Mostaghimi
December 5, 2006
Occ Civ Section 8
December 5, 2006
Occ Civ Section 8
Voltaire's Candide
In Candide, Voltaire takes an extremely satirical look at the 'high society' of his time. Through the extremely innocent character of Candide himself and his many misadventures, he paints an extremely negative picture of the upper class of society. He sees them as liars, cheaters, only concerned about their own well-being and fortunes, and generally all-around bad people. This is understandable, considering Voltaire's experiences in life. Voltaire himself was mistreated by high society- even thrown in jail for his previous satire. Through Candide, Voltaire is able to put a mirror up to society, and by provoking laughter, he intends to make you question exactly what it is that you find so ridiculous that you laugh.
Candide's two philosopher buddies were actually very interesting to me. Pangloss and Martin are so diametrically opposed that their juxtaposition is just comical. While Pangloss is a firm optimist (even after getting some horrible flesh-eating STD and being hanged), there is absolutely nothing that can be done to shake Martin from his overwhelming negativity. Happily, it's Pangloss who affects Candide more, because that leads itself to a much more innocent and wondrous story, rather than the cynical version we'd get if Martin were his main influence.
Candide's travels are so fantastic as to be comical, and yet they provide an interesting view that touches on most of the elements of contemporary society. Voltaire finds time to lambaste slavery, expose greed, make the clergy look like fools, and even make light of the idea of love. For all that, Candide is a hilarious book, with enormous reading potential
Questions:
Why was Pangloss Candide's original tutor, and not Martin?
Why did Voltaire turn Cunegonde into a disgusting old hag at the end?
Candide's two philosopher buddies were actually very interesting to me. Pangloss and Martin are so diametrically opposed that their juxtaposition is just comical. While Pangloss is a firm optimist (even after getting some horrible flesh-eating STD and being hanged), there is absolutely nothing that can be done to shake Martin from his overwhelming negativity. Happily, it's Pangloss who affects Candide more, because that leads itself to a much more innocent and wondrous story, rather than the cynical version we'd get if Martin were his main influence.
Candide's travels are so fantastic as to be comical, and yet they provide an interesting view that touches on most of the elements of contemporary society. Voltaire finds time to lambaste slavery, expose greed, make the clergy look like fools, and even make light of the idea of love. For all that, Candide is a hilarious book, with enormous reading potential
Questions:
Why was Pangloss Candide's original tutor, and not Martin?
Why did Voltaire turn Cunegonde into a disgusting old hag at the end?
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