IP NOTES 12/6

I State Structure & Nuclear Revolution
Nuclear Weapons and Constitutional Democracy
idea was that the industrial era (world wars) would destroy constitutional democracy
the US would have to become a garrison state just to survive the wars
in one sense- constitutional democracy was SAFE
-nukes give soooo much bang for the buck, it makes military easier
const. democracy is also hollowed
-essentially establishes nuclear despotism inside the const. democracies
-commander in chief has the launch keys, and him alone
totalitarian nuclear archipelago
-the production and research of nuclear materials, etc, are INTENSELY hierarchical
Leaking Leviathans
AQ KHAN NETWORK
-pakistani nuke scientist that went out and stole plans for nukes, etc
-would have been not too bad, just pakistan would get the bomb, but Khan SOLD the technology, materials
-Khan decided to sell this shit to n. korea, libya, iran, etc
-fucks EVERYTHING up. wooo leakage
"THE GOLD STANDARD"
-lets just globally secure fissile material and nukes as securely as we do gold

II Terrorism: What, Who, Why
Elusive Definitions
can't really define terrorism
un is retarded
one definition is that of non-state actors doing bad shit
another argument is that states can be terrorists, but this is unacceptable to state leaders
Terrorism Myths: Novelty, Irrationality, and Democracy
Terrorism is NOT NEW
-goes back to the beginning of history, even more recently with the invention of dynamite
Terrorism is NOT crazy
-terrorists are not irrational, they're looking to accomplish political goals
-they're not just blowing shit up for no reason
Terrorism is solvable short-term by democracy
-maybe this is true, long term
-short term, democracy and the absence of terrorism are NOT correlated
Asymmetric Warfare
terrorism is essentially a weapon of the weak
-guerrilla warfare, anybody?
terrorism is a time-honored tool of insurgent warfare
-terrorists cause disorder and fear, this decreases the legitimacy of the ruling state
-hence, terrorism is ridiculously effective at fighting established power
Al Qaeda, Radical Islam, and Global War on Terrorism
ozzie bin laden was originally an 'american client' used to fight the soviet invasion of afghanistan
they start up cells in ~60 different countries
so you've got islam (huge group of over a billion)
-subset of that is political islam, small fraction of muslims
-subset of that is radical political islam, a small fraction of THAT
-and a subset of that is VIOLENT radical political islam (tiny, tiny, tiny, but VOCAL number of people)
basic goal- throw the americans out of saudi arabia, reunite the arab muslim world under a caliphate
whats the plan?
-strike at the US
-wait for the US to strike back, possibly collateral damage, etc
-use that strike back as a recruitment tool
G.W.O.T.
-we aren't actually focused on TERRORISM (terrorism's a tactic, not a person)
-the question is should we have a 'war on terrorism' or just establish these people as criminals
Cults: Aum Shinryko
cult- a micro totalitarian society or group typically dominated by a charismatic leader
-aum shinryko is a pretty disturbing one
-they had assets of > <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">IP NOTES 12/6</span></span><br> <br> <span style="font-weight: bold;">I State Structure &amp; Nuclear Revolution</span><br><span style="font-style: italic;">Nuclear Weapons and Constitutional Democracy</span><br>idea was that the industrial era (world wars) would destroy constitutional democracy<br>the US would have to become a garrison state just to survive the wars<br>in one sense- constitutional democracy was SAFE<br>    -nukes give soooo much bang for the buck, it makes military easier<br>const. democracy is also hollowed<br>    -essentially establishes nuclear despotism inside the const. democracies<br>    -commander in chief has the launch keys, and him alone<br>totalitarian nuclear archipelago<br>    -the production and research of nuclear materials, etc, are INTENSELY hierarchical<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Leaking Leviathans</span><br>AQ KHAN NETWORK<br>    -pakistani nuke scientist that went out and stole plans for nukes, etc<br>    -would have been not too bad, just pakistan would get the bomb, but Khan SOLD the technology, materials<br>    -Khan decided to sell this shit to n. korea, libya, iran, etc<br>    -fucks EVERYTHING up. wooo leakage<br>"THE GOLD STANDARD"<br>    -lets just globally secure fissile material and nukes as securely as we do gold<br><br><span style="font-weight: bold;">II Terrorism: What, Who, Why</span><br><span style="font-style: italic;">Elusive Definitions</span><br>can't really define terrorism<br>un is retarded<br>one definition is that of non-state actors doing bad shit<br>another argument is that states can be terrorists, but this is unacceptable to state leaders<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Terrorism Myths: Novelty, Irrationality, and Democracy</span><br>Terrorism is NOT NEW<br>    -goes back to the beginning of history, even more recently with the invention of dynamite<br>Terrorism is NOT crazy<br>    -terrorists are not irrational, they're looking to accomplish political goals<br>    -they're not just blowing shit up for no reason<br>Terrorism is solvable short-term by democracy<br>    -maybe this is true, long term<br>    -short term, democracy and the absence of terrorism are NOT correlated<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Asymmetric Warfare</span><br>terrorism is essentially a weapon of the weak<br>    -guerrilla warfare, anybody?<br>terrorism is a time-honored tool of insurgent warfare<br>    -terrorists cause disorder and fear, this decreases the legitimacy of the ruling state<br>    -hence, terrorism is ridiculously effective at fighting established power<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Al Qaeda, Radical Islam, and Global War on Terrorism</span><br>ozzie bin laden was originally an 'american client' used to fight the soviet invasion of afghanistan<br>they start up cells in ~60 different countries<br>so you've got islam (huge group of over a billion)<br>    -subset of that is political islam, small fraction of muslims<br>    -subset of <span style="font-style: italic;">that</span> is radical political islam, a small fraction of THAT<br>    -and a subset of <span style="font-style: italic;">that</span> is VIOLENT radical political islam (tiny, tiny, tiny, but VOCAL number of people)<br>basic goal- throw the americans out of saudi arabia, reunite the arab muslim world under a caliphate<br>whats the plan?<br>    -strike at the US<br>    -wait for the US to strike back, possibly collateral damage, etc<br>    -use that strike back as a recruitment tool<br>G.W.O.T.<br>    -we aren't actually focused on TERRORISM (terrorism's a tactic, not a person)<br>    -the question is should we have a 'war on terrorism' or just establish these people as criminals<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Cults: Aum Shinryko</span><br>cult- a micro totalitarian society or group typically dominated by a charismatic leader<br>    -aum shinryko is a pretty disturbing one<br>    -they had assets of &gt;$1 billion<br>    -were making systematic attempts to secure nuclear material<br>    -they actually started establishing some laboratories, made anthrax, released sarin (nerve gas) in the tokyo subway<br>    -their idea was that if their plan worked, japanese govt would collapse under the chaos, and they could step in and take power<br><br><span style="font-weight: bold;">III Theorizing WMD Terrorism</span><br><span style="font-style: italic;">WMD Terrorism</span><br>WMD terrorism is actually a TINY subset of total terrorist attacks in quantity<br>    -HOWEVER, WMD terrorism's harms faaaaarrrrr outweigh the harms of the rest of terrorist attacks combined<br>the idea is that it's not a matter of if, but when we'll be hit<br>we're gonna have to start thinking about a post-washington foreign policy (cause its just a matter of time until washington's goooone)<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Shifting K-K Ratio &amp; Omniviolence</span><br>idea is that the killers to killed ratio has always been in the realm of 1-1 through 1-10<br>    -with 9/11, it shifted significantly higher (like 30-3000)<br>    -with WMD, the K-K ratio is massively unbalance<br>    -we've never dealt with this before<br>Omniviolence is the world where there are potentially 100s-1000s of actors<br>    -at the moment, tehre are ~8-25<br>    -this would be chaos<br>even if fissile material is hard to obtain, nowadays we can manufacture tailor-made viruses, etc, so that BIOWEAPONS are extremely deadly<br><span style="font-style: italic;">Penetration and Liberty</span><br>penetration is the measure of how many levels of govt actually touch, or affect, the individual<br>    -low penetration is associated with political liberty, and high penetration the exact opposite<br>    -penetration is things like surveillance, etc<br>essentially, there's a trade off to be made<br>    -trade off between security and nuclear containment<br>    -if we want to keep our current level of containment (low), we'll need to have to massively increase our penetration (just for security)<br>    -if we want to maintain our liberty, we need to massively increase containment efforts<br> billion
-were making systematic attempts to secure nuclear material
-they actually started establishing some laboratories, made anthrax, released sarin (nerve gas) in the tokyo subway
-their idea was that if their plan worked, japanese govt would collapse under the chaos, and they could step in and take power

III Theorizing WMD Terrorism
WMD Terrorism
WMD terrorism is actually a TINY subset of total terrorist attacks in quantity
-HOWEVER, WMD terrorism's harms faaaaarrrrr outweigh the harms of the rest of terrorist attacks combined
the idea is that it's not a matter of if, but when we'll be hit
we're gonna have to start thinking about a post-washington foreign policy (cause its just a matter of time until washington's goooone)
Shifting K-K Ratio & Omniviolence
idea is that the killers to killed ratio has always been in the realm of 1-1 through 1-10
-with 9/11, it shifted significantly higher (like 30-3000)
-with WMD, the K-K ratio is massively unbalance
-we've never dealt with this before
Omniviolence is the world where there are potentially 100s-1000s of actors
-at the moment, tehre are ~8-25
-this would be chaos
even if fissile material is hard to obtain, nowadays we can manufacture tailor-made viruses, etc, so that BIOWEAPONS are extremely deadly
Penetration and Liberty
penetration is the measure of how many levels of govt actually touch, or affect, the individual
-low penetration is associated with political liberty, and high penetration the exact opposite
-penetration is things like surveillance, etc
essentially, there's a trade off to be made
-trade off between security and nuclear containment
-if we want to keep our current level of containment (low), we'll need to have to massively increase our penetration (just for security)
-if we want to maintain our liberty, we need to massively increase containment efforts