IP NOTES 10/17
#10 Anarchy
IV. Consequences
Cheating (stag hunt)
Key claim of the realists- cooperation is less occurent in anarchy than one would expect, because of CHEATING
-example- hungry hunters want to go hunt a deer
-if everyone cooperates, they can trap the big animal and all eat
-problem is that one of the people sees a rabbit go by, decides to get the rabbit rather than cooperate
-deer isn't caught
-idea: states will go after smaller, direct gain when they go it alone rather than a larger, long term gain gained by cooperation
Security Dilemma
old argument, refined by neo-realists
-explains why war is more frequent in anarchy
Assumption- all states in the system are status quo powers (they're already powers, they need not go to war to assure their power)
-even so, war is still frequent
-why?
States assess the ability of other states
-they see other states build up military and armaments (usually for defensive purposes, but other people dont see it that way)
-other states get threatened, build up their own militaries
-etc etc
Security dilemma is ACUTE sometimes, other times MILD
-ACUTE when offensive arms are more militarily dominant than defensive arms
-MILD when defensive arms trump offensive arms
-other states don't find defensive arms as threatening as offensive arms
Polarity & War Proneness
Polarity is the number of great powers in a system
-usually you have MONOPOLAR (or UNIPOLAR), BIPOLAR, and MULTIPOLAR
-waltz argues that bipolarity and multipolarity are very different in their proneness for war
-why?
bipolar system-
-very simple. you've got one enemy
-this means that the effect of miscalculation has less effect
multipolar system-
-very complex. lots of other states
-possibility for miscalculation is much higher
-this means more war
There is something BEYOND the sum of foreign policies
Like Units: Socialization and Emulation
In an anarchy states (HAVE TO BE concerned with security) will emulate other states
-what works is copied
-states LEARN over time
-for example, now states see that agression pays off less and less
-over time, the implication is that states realize that nuclear deterrence actually works and the use of nukes is suicidal, nukes will disappear
States are subject to socialization with regard to norms
V. Criticisms and Limitations
criticisms- TOO SIMPLE, there are other ways for states to evolve
Neorealist arguments are all SECOND GRADE, they DROP violence interdependence
2 or 3 Ordering Principles

High Absolute Gains/Losses & Co-Binding
States want to forgo absolute gains where they lead to relative loss
RELATIVE GAINS TRUMP ABSOLUTE GAINS
today's ally could be tomorrow's enemy
Realist definition of VI (anarchy)- absolute losses are very high
-according to this, they leave anarchy
-they hate heirarchy as well, more away from it
-NEGARCHY is the answer
-you leave anarchy to get rid of absolute losses, leave heirarchy to get rid of relative losses

#11 Hegemony
I. Hegemonic System
comes from concentration of power
-first pax britanica
-then pax americana
II Change and Succession
E.H. Carr wrote the Twenty Years Crisis (written in 1939)
-there's all this turmoil going on, lots of catastrophic general war, etc
-why? because britain can't continue as a hegemon
-US has to step in, but there's this interregnum
Succession
hegemonic succession is interesting... somehow
when a hegemon is replaced by another hegemon, there is turmoil, but it's not systemic change
before succession, GB was king
-pound sterling was the key economic trading unit
-when US takes over, they have to put into place all sorts of rules and insitutions to ensure their rule (UN, World Bank, etc)
Disjuncture and Contradiction
What is the 20 years crisis?
-LAG IN SUCCESSION
-british cannot sustain their role, and the americans cannot yet take up the mantle
-result- GREAT DEPRESSION
-the structure itself breaks down when there's no hegemon

four step process-
-1st- Equilibrium
-then comes an uneven growth- differential growth rates
-2nd redistribution of power
-3rd this means DISEQUILIBRIUM
-CRISIS
-4th resolution of the crisis (most of the time war, but not always)
-back to equilibrium
III Causes of Decline and Overextension
Exogenous Change
-technology and population change
-EXOGENOUS because they're outside of the realm of hegemonic power
Endogenous Change
overextension is the big one
-the cause of the decline of a hegemon is BEING A HEGEMON
-implies that hegemony itself wears the hegemon down
-why?
Cost Caps Strength
-being a hegemon is freaking expensive
No competition
-nobody to compete with, no reason to innovate
Ossification
-states get happy as hegemons, they begin to solidify their power, lose ability to change, adapt

IV Responses
Rejuvenation
too few resources? increase them!
internal reforms, give us more shit
basically this is a domestic thing, you pull more power from yourself
Preventive War

Further Expansion

Reduce Commitments